Generation, Capacity, Imports and the Nuclear Entry
ABSTRACT
This brief compiles the Turkish energy position across generation mix, capacity additions, storage pipeline, import dependence and the nuclear programme, using data through the first half of 2026. It records where the transition is ahead of schedule, where it is behind, and where the published targets and the realised deployment rate diverge.
1. Generation mix, 2025
Coal remained the largest single source of Turkish electricity in 2025 at 34 percent of generation, or 121 terawatt-hours, marginally below the record 122 terawatt-hours set in 2024. Approximately two-thirds of coal generation used imported fuel. The utilisation pattern is informative: imported-coal plants ran at capacity factors above 80 percent while domestic-coal plants ran at roughly 45 percent, despite domestic-coal installed capacity exceeding imported-coal capacity. Imported coal is dispatched first.
Natural gas supplied 22 percent, continuing a long decline from more than 40 percent in the early 2000s and 48 percent in 2014. Wind reached 11.1 percent and solar 10.5 percent, the latter equal to 37.3 terawatt-hours. Combined wind and solar at 22 percent exceeded hydroelectric output for the first time, a threshold assisted by a 17 terawatt-hour fall in hydro generation during the most severe drought in decades. Total renewables reached 43 percent of generation, up from 33 percent in 2015.
No new coal plant has been commissioned since 2022 and none is under construction. A purchase guarantee for domestic-coal plants beginning in 2026 may raise their utilisation rates and produce a new coal generation record, which would be a policy-induced reversal of the observed trend rather than a market outcome.
2. Capacity additions and the 2035 target
Türkiye added a record 6.5 gigawatts of combined wind and solar capacity in 2025, bringing the installed base to approximately 40 gigawatts. Solar installations peaked at 4.8 gigawatts in 2023 and have remained close to that level since, doubling solar generation from 18.4 terawatt-hours in 2023 to 37.3 in 2025 and raising solar’s share of generation from 4.7 percent in 2022 to 10.5 percent in 2025.
The stated 2035 target is 120 gigawatts of wind and solar, which requires roughly 8 gigawatts of annual additions. The record year delivered 6.5. The gap is not catastrophic but it is systematic, and closing it requires a step change in annual deployment rather than a continuation of the current rate.
First-half 2026 data show 2.1 gigawatts of solar added, taking cumulative solar capacity to approximately 26.9 gigawatts across more than 41,000 plants, up from around 37,600 plants at the start of the year. Of the 2026 additions, 1.8 gigawatts came from unlicensed plants, indicating that distributed rather than utility-scale deployment is currently driving growth. Solar recorded its highest ever monthly share of generation in June 2026 at 16.5 percent, surpassing the previous record of 16.1 percent set in June 2025, with approximately 5 terawatt-hours generated in the month.
3. Storage
Since 2022 new wind and solar plants seeking storage-integrated licences must install battery capacity equal to their generation capacity. Allocated battery capacity in the resulting project pipeline has reached 33 gigawatts, equivalent to 83 percent of current combined wind and solar capacity. For comparison, the European Union member states with the largest battery portfolios hold approximately 12 to 13 gigawatts including both operational capacity and project pipelines.
Realised deployment lags the allocation by a wide margin. The first storage-integrated solar plant entered commercial operation in the first half of 2026 at 260 megawatts, and storage recorded a monthly charge–discharge volume of approximately 14 gigawatt-hours in June 2026, equivalent to roughly 0.05 percent of monthly consumption. The allocation is therefore a pipeline rather than an asset, and the rate at which it converts is the variable to watch.
4. Import dependence and the bill
Net energy imports cost 47 billion dollars in 2025 and averaged 42 billion annually over the decade to 2024, equal to 4.5 percent of gross domestic product. That ratio places Türkiye second among G20 net energy importers, behind South Korea at 5.1 percent. In 2022 the bill exceeded 80 billion dollars, or 8.6 percent of output.
Source-based dependence stands at 95 percent for natural gas, 83 percent for crude oil and 60 percent for coal, with roughly two-thirds of total energy demand met by imported fossil fuels. Supplier concentration in 2025: gas from Russia 36 percent, Azerbaijan 20 percent, the United States 16 percent, Iran 13 percent, Algeria 8 percent; crude from Russia 46 percent, Iraq 15 percent, Kazakhstan 13 percent, Saudi Arabia 7 percent. Coal for electricity generation came 85 percent from Russia and 12 percent from Colombia.
By consuming sector, road transport accounted for roughly 15 billion dollars of the 2025 bill, close to one third; industry 8 billion, or 17 percent; households and electricity generation approximately 16 percent each. Residential gas alone cost 7.2 billion dollars, of which about 90 percent is used for space heating and hot water.
The 2026 shock following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is projected to add more than 14 billion dollars to the annual bill, approximately 30 percent, with a further and larger increment reaching 2027 through the nine-month lag in oil-indexed gas contracts.
5. Electrification of demand
Electric vehicles numbered more than 420,000 as of April 2026, and 17 percent of new cars sold in 2025 were electric. The energy market regulator projects the fleet exceeding 5 million by 2035. Each million electric vehicles avoids approximately 900 million dollars in annual fossil fuel imports. Passenger cars account for 40 percent of road transport energy consumption; heavy goods vehicles, buses and vans account for the remaining 60 percent.
On the heating side, converting 10 percent of Türkiye’s roughly 25 million households from gas to heat pumps would remove over 1 billion dollars from the annual import bill, heat pumps delivering equivalent output using approximately one third of the energy.
6. Nuclear
The Akkuyu plant in Mersin comprises four VVER-1200 reactors totalling 4,800 megawatts, built under a build-own-operate model by Rosatom pursuant to the 2010 intergovernmental agreement. The construction licence for the first unit was issued in 2018 and first concrete was poured in April 2018. Nuclear fuel was delivered to site in April 2023. As of early 2026 the first unit was reported at 99 percent construction completion with 65 percent of start-up work done, and 163 dummy fuel assemblies were loaded in mid-2026 as part of the commissioning sequence.
Two constraints have affected the schedule. A European supplier withheld the gas-insulated switchgear system required to transmit electricity to the national grid, and an alternative was sourced through Chinese partners in cooperation with the Turkish energy ministry. Project financing has been affected by funds frozen abroad. When all four units operate the plant is projected to supply approximately 10 percent of Turkish electricity.
7. Summary assessment
Türkiye is running ahead of expectation on solar generation share, battery pipeline allocation and the displacement of gas from the generation mix, and behind on annual capacity additions relative to the 2035 target, on storage commissioning relative to allocation, and on end-use electrification relative to where the import bill actually sits. The binding exposure is not the generation mix, which accounts for roughly 16 percent of the import bill, but transport and buildings, which account for about half.
SOURCES
Ember (2026) Türkiye Electricity Review 2026; Ember (2026) Global Electricity Review 2026.
Ember first-half 2026 solar capacity data reported via pv magazine, July 2026; EPİAŞ monthly generation data.
Ember (2026) ‘Hormuz crisis could cost Türkiye $14 billion’, 12 June 2026, and its methodology annex.
Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EPDK), monthly gas and petroleum sector reports; electric vehicle and charging infrastructure projection.
World Nuclear News, ‘Dummy fuel successfully loaded in Akkuyu 1’, June 2026; Akkuyu Nükleer AŞ statements, December 2025.
Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, EİGM reports and 2025 domestic crude production release.
International Energy Agency, The Future of Heat Pumps.
Furkan Mahmut Tameroglu