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The 2027 pre-budget statement mapped against three conditional Hormuz branches ABSTRACT Saudi Arabia’s 2027 pre-budget statement of 30 September 2026 projects spending of SAR 1.392 trillion, revenue of SAR 1.202 trillion and…
Growth, inflation and policy rates under three oil-price bands, and the October 2026 calendar that separates them ABSTRACT The 2027 baselines of the IMF, OECD and ECB assume that oil falls well…
Capacity timelines against damage timelines for LNG, oil bypass routes and Türkiye’s gas portfolio ABSTRACT The 2026 Hormuz crisis cut Gulf oil and LNG exports through two mechanisms: transit restriction and facility…
How IMF, OECD, ECB and World Bank projections depend on 2026 Brent assumptions of $86–105 ABSTRACT Four international projection rounds published between April and September 2026 assumed 2026 oil prices between $86…
Saudi oil revenue under combinations of realised price and crude volume, from the Q2 2026 baseline to 2027 ABSTRACT In the second quarter of 2026 Saudi budget oil revenue rose 22% year…
Conditional branches on the Hormuz regime, the Yemen front, Israel–Hezbollah and the US commitment ABSTRACT This simulation maps the forms the Gulf security architecture can take in 2027 from four variables fixed…
Conditional branches on the Hormuz regime, the Red Sea outlet, OPEC+ spare capacity and demand ABSTRACT At the end of September 2026 four state variables set the direction of the oil market:…
Updating Türkiye’s 2026–2027 inflation path with the Medium-Term Programme revision and the CBRT’s war-effect estimate ABSTRACT On 6 September 2026 the Medium-Term Programme (MTP) 2027–2029 raised Türkiye’s 2026 year-end inflation forecast from…
Inflation, the current account and the budget under three conditional oil-price bands ABSTRACT This simulation tests under which oil-price environment the targets of Türkiye’s Medium-Term Programme (MTP) 2027–2029, announced on 6 September…
Calibrating Consequence from the 2023 Observation ABSTRACT The 2023 Kahramanmaraş and Hatay earthquakes cost the Turkish economy an estimated 103.6 billion dollars, roughly 9 percent of output. This simulation uses the observed…
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