Second-Round Effects in Waiting
Pass-through of the 2026 oil shock in the euro area, with the United States and Türkiye as comparators, August–September 2026 ABSTRACT In August 2026 euro-area energy inflation reached 14.3% while services inflation…
Category
Kategori: ANALYSES
A Denominator Effect
Saudi Arabia’s record non-oil GDP share in the first half of 2026: diversification signal or arithmetic ABSTRACT Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Finance announced in its 30 September 2026 pre-budget statement that non-oil…
The Diesel Channel
The middle-distillate bottleneck as the carrier of the 2026 shock into inflation: the United States, Europe and Türkiye, August–September 2026 ABSTRACT This analysis examines through which product the 2026 energy shock reached…
One Shock, Four Reaction Functions
The Fed, ECB, Bank of England and Bank of Japan decisions of 10–18 September 2026 compared ABSTRACT Between 10 and 18 September 2026 four major central banks answered the same energy shock…
The Stagflation Label
Euro-area growth and inflation tested against three definitions, June–September 2026 ABSTRACT Euro-area annual inflation reached 3.2% in August 2026 while the ECB, the IMF and the OECD put 2026 growth at 0.9–1.0%.…
Paper Barrels, Physical Barrels
Why ICE Brent futures understated the 2026 supply shock: a comparison with Dated Brent and prompt benchmarks, April–September 2026 ABSTRACT On 9 September 2026 ICE Brent futures settled at $97.92 while physical…
Insurance as a Price Component
War-risk premia, tanker freight and the Saudi state pool in the Gulf war, August–September 2026 ABSTRACT Geopolitical risk in the 2026 Gulf war reached the oil price through a channel that futures-based…
Headline Risk and Physical Scarcity
How Brent futures priced diplomatic news and Saudi export capacity separately, 3 August–25 September 2026 ABSTRACT This analysis asks which events moved ICE Brent futures between 3 August and 25 September 2026.…
Dividends Before Cash Flow
Aramco’s second-quarter 2026 payout and the transfer of rent through the company balance sheet ABSTRACT On 4 August 2026 Aramco declared a $21.88bn base dividend for the second quarter, when its free…
Corridor Reality Check
Middle Corridor Volumes Against Infrastructure Claims ABSTRACT Trans-Caspian freight has grown from 1.5 million tonnes in 2022 to 5.2 million in 2025, and official statements target 10 million. This analysis identifies the…
Yorum yazabilmek için oturum açmalısınız.